Tim O'Reilly blog post on Chinese fast growth and pollution in his Chinese Foo Camp review made me think of the book "Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update" which I just got. If you haven't seen it it is an analysis and computer models of where our current world is going with all the growth and pollution and the effectiveness (or not in most cases) of actions we might take to prevent an economic, human and ecological crisis in the next 30 years. It is sobering to play with the variables and assumptions in the models and still end up crashing the planet. For example doubling the amount of oil and other natural resources actually makes things worse in the long term due to even greater pollution. They conclude that we are currently in a global 'overshoot,' or resource use beyond the carrying capacity of the planet and that there will be a corresponding crash within next 50 years.
I remember reading the original book edition in 1972 and there are some stories on what we have done right (eg CFC and ozone layer) and others that are not so good (global warming).
The models are available if you want to play with them at Chelseagreen or from Amazon.
The models are written in a programming language called Stella that I hadn't come across before.
Though I think we should definitely look at our continental neighbors in the global decline of our environment, we should keep it all in perspective. US being one of the biggest, if not the biggest, importer of goods coming from China, its been suggested that there is still little legislation for foreign fees on products that exceed energy efficient methods of production. In the US and around the world, all emissions are accounted for and measurable. The point I am trying to make is- the hegemonic powers that be are more apt to actively make efforts to reduce pollution, but at the same time, off-set those efforts by taking advantage of this particular market of globalization. This market meaning, outsourcing labor...it's cheaper and it comes at a heavy price.
AND while the US environmental gurus grapple with the pollution and global environmental initiatives, other countries are dealing with war and genocide. How do we balance all these time sensitive issues? Where's a project manager manager when you are in dire need of one?
It seems from the article in the NYT (8/27/07), reducing the health problems of China's people takes precedence over the global environmental concerns and pressures as far as reducing pollution is concerned. Makes sense.
Just my two cents...thanks for the post!!
Here are some articles that may be of interest:
http://www.carbontax.org/ (Carbon Tax Center)
http://www2.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/jstiglitz/ind... (Joseph Stiglitz - Economist- I read his book, Globalization and Its Discontents-need to re-read)
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/26/world/asia/26chi... (Article from NYT about China's pollution)